Lakers vs. Timberwolves: Without James and Dončić, Can Minnesota Cover 7.5 Points?

On Wednesday, October 29, 2025, the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Los Angeles Lakers at Target Center in Minneapolis — a matchup that feels less like a routine NBA game and more like a high-stakes identity test. Both teams sit at 2-2, but the absence of two of the league’s biggest stars — LeBron James and Luka Dončić — has turned what was expected to be a star-studded rematch into a gritty, low-visibility battle for playoff positioning. The last time these teams met, just four days prior, Dončić dropped 49 points on the Timberwolves in Los Angeles. Now, he’s out. So is James. And so, too, is Minnesota’s engine: Anthony Edwards, sidelined until mid-November with a lingering knee issue. The twist? The Timberwolves are still favored by 7.5 points.

Who’s Left on the Floor?

Without James and Dončić, the Lakers’ offense has to pivot entirely. Against the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday, Austin Reaves carried the load with 41 points, but the team shot a dismal 7-for-27 from three. Rui Hachimura, DeAndre Ayton, and Dalton Knecht each chipped in 16 — solid, but not star-level. This isn’t the Lakers team that won 60 games last season. It’s a squad trying to survive without its two most reliable creators. Coach Darvin Ham has said publicly, "We’re not making excuses. We’re just playing." But the numbers don’t lie: the Lakers have lost four of their last five games when James and Dončić both sit.

Minnesota’s situation isn’t much rosier. Their defensive identity, once the backbone of Chris Finch’s system, has crumbled. In their last game, they gave up 127 points to the Denver Nuggets — a team that doesn’t even have Nikola Jokić playing at full strength. Jaden McDaniels (25 points), Julius Randle (24), and Naz Reid (18) kept them competitive, but the defense allowed 52 percent shooting from the field. "We’re not the same team without Anthony," Finch admitted after the loss. "His energy, his rim protection, his ability to switch — it’s irreplaceable." And it’s not just Edwards. Minnesota’s bench has been inconsistent, with key reserves like Mike Conley and Naz Reid struggling with turnovers.

The Numbers Don’t Add Up — But Maybe They Do

Here’s where it gets weird. The Timberwolves are 4-6 in their last 10 games overall, including preseason. They’re scoring 113 points per game at home — great. But they’re allowing 118. The Lakers, meanwhile, have lost nine of their last 10 games at Target Center — yet somehow, the favorites have won each of those last nine. That’s a contradiction that even advanced analytics can’t fully explain. Some say it’s momentum. Others say it’s home-court intimidation. One thing’s clear: Target Center has been a nightmare for visiting teams since 1989, even when they’re undermanned.

Betting markets are split. The over/under is 225.5, higher than the historical average of 213.84. Why? Because both teams have been shooting more threes — and missing more. The Lakers shot 26 percent from deep against Portland. The Timberwolves are at 34 percent this season, but their opponents are shooting 38 percent against them. The computer models, like StatsAlt’s, predict a 118-117 finish. That’s a one-point game. Yet the spread is 7.5. That’s a disconnect that oddsmakers are betting on — and so are some sharp bettors.

Why This Game Matters Beyond the Box Score

This isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about identity. The Lakers are trying to prove they can win without their superstars — something they haven’t done consistently since 2021. The Timberwolves are trying to prove they’re more than just Anthony Edwards. They’ve been a team defined by defense since Finch took over in 2021. Now, without their best defender, they’re being exposed. If they lose this game by more than 7.5 points? Questions about Finch’s system will resurface. If they win by 10 or more? Suddenly, the narrative shifts: Minnesota might be deeper than anyone thought.

And then there’s the psychological factor. The Lakers just lost to Portland at home. The Timberwolves just lost to Denver at home. Both teams are bruised, both are tired, both are desperate. This game won’t be pretty. It’ll be physical. It’ll be messy. And it might just decide who gets the edge in the Western Conference’s brutal middle tier.

What’s Next?

If the Timberwolves cover, expect their confidence to surge into a November stretch that includes games against Phoenix, Golden State, and Sacramento. If the Lakers pull off the upset? Don’t be surprised if Reaves gets a contract extension by December. Both teams have until November 15 to stabilize their rotations before the trade deadline window opens. This game is a litmus test — not just for standings, but for roster decisions.

And if you’re watching? Pay attention to the bench minutes. Look for Knecht’s shooting stroke. Watch how Ayton handles the paint without James. See if Randle can carry the load without Edwards. These are the stories that won’t make highlight reels — but will define the season.